关键词: 水电站工程, 安全监测仪器, 仪器完好率, 仪器服役时变特性, 仪器服役时变模型

Abstract:

The service time and time-varying characteristics of safety monitoring instruments in hydropower projects are critical factors affecting the design, implementation, and operational management of engineering safety monitoring. However, there is limited research on the time-varying behavior of these instruments both in China and abroad. In this study we collected actual large-sample data on the service performance of safety monitoring instruments from ten hydropower projects in China. Important time nodes for the ten projects were summarized, and the total failure rates of monitoring instruments in each project were calculated, revealing the time-varying patterns of failure rates. Results indicate that: 1)During the construction phase, the failure rate increment model of monitoring instruments in seven projects follows a normal distribution, with the failure rate increment in six projects initially increasing and then decreasing. The inflection point occurs at 51%-84% of the construction period. The failure rate of monitoring instruments in three projects consistently increased throughout the construction phase. 2)During the operational phase, the failure rates of monitoring instruments exhibited a steady upward trend, conforming to a linear model. The time-varying models proposed in this paper effectively predict the changing failure rates of safety monitoring instruments in hydropower projects.

Key words: hydropower projects, safety monitoring instruments, intact rate of instrument, time-varying service characteristics of instruments, time-varying service models of instruments